Tropical Storm Ingrid took shape today in the Gulf of Mexico, but if forecasters are correct, it should not pose a major wind danger to Texas or the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association. The GFS ensemble, shown here, all shows landfall in Mexico. So too do the other major hurricane models. Of equal importance, the SHIPs intensity model, which attempts the dark art of windspeed prediction, does not show Ingrid getting much above its current 50 knot tropical storm intensity. So, although I have raised alarm bells for some time about the resilience of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association to a significant storm, Ingrid does not look like the one that will test the largest insurer along the Texas coast or, for that matter, other insurers.
Of course, weather forecasters haven’t been having the best year making predictions. If Ingrid takes a more northerly track, all bets are off.