Tropical storm Ingrid should not pose a wind threat to Texas

Tropical Storm Ingrid took shape today in the Gulf of Mexico, but if forecasters are correct, it should not pose a major wind danger to Texas or the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association. The GFS ensemble, shown here, all shows landfall in Mexico. So too do the other major hurricane models.  Of equal importance, the SHIPs intensity model, which attempts the dark art of windspeed prediction, does not show Ingrid getting much above its current 50 knot tropical storm intensity.  So, although I have raised alarm bells for some time about the resilience of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association to a significant storm, Ingrid does not look like the one that will test the largest insurer along the Texas coast or, for that matter, other insurers.

Ingrid GFS Ensemble

Ingrid GFS Ensemble

Of course, weather forecasters haven’t been having the best year making predictions.  If Ingrid takes a more northerly track, all bets are off.

One thought on “Tropical storm Ingrid should not pose a wind threat to Texas

  1. Seth – I have seen news articles in Brownsville indicating that TWIA is getting more stable financially and an article today in the Austin Statesman that Galveston is making progress rebuilding. I wish someone would pointout the solvency risk with TWIA is much greater than before Ike and endangers both Brownsville and Galveston. The “recovery” is the wrong story … TWIA is in very perlious financial condition.

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