Colorado State University (CSU) has published one of its predictions for tropical cyclones along the Gulf Coast. Historically, the April predictions of this group aren’t very good. The statistical correlation between April prediction and summer reality is only 0.09. This result is only a little better than chance. Still, CSU’s work does provide some information on the risk facing our Texas coast. Its method is better, for example, than basing the current year on the number of named storms in the previous 2 years. By June 30, the predictions of this group for the remainder of hurricane season get a lot better. Unfortunately, the prediction for this hurricane season is that it will be worse than normal. That’s particularly troubling given that the leading insurer of windstorm risk in Texas has been found insolvent by its auditors and there is no legislative proposal currently gaining a lot of traction that addresses 2013 risk.
The interactive widget below shows the probability of named storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes for each of the Texas counties for 2013 based on the April predictions of CSU. You can get the data underlying the widget here. For techies and statisticians, I’m assuming, along with CSU and many others, that the distribution of tropical cyclone landfall comes from the “Poisson family.”
[WolframCDF source=”http://catrisk.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/csu-april-2013.cdf” CDFwidth=”600″ CDFheight=”540″ altimage=”http://catrisk.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/overview-getplayer_off.png”]
A hat top to the Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger for bringing this forecast to my attention.