The 2 p.m. Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts are in and virtually all of them show what is now “Invest 92L” but what may become “Fernand” hitting the Texas coast in the next few days. One of the projections (GFDL) shows it hitting Corpus Christi. Another model (LBAR) shows it hitting the most populated part of the Texas Coast around Galveston. It’s too early to say whether Invest 92L will develop into a tropical cyclone — forecasters have been giving it about an 60% chance of doing so — or, if it does, how it will intensify over the world’s largest bathtub, the the Gulf of Mexico, but it would not be a bad time for those at risk from tropical storms, particularly those who have windstorm insurance provided by the undercapitalized (negative surplus) Texas Windstorm Insurance Association, to start thinking about preparations.
The best information I’ve seen on intensity comes from http://wx.hamweather.com/tropical/2013/atlantic/invest92L/modelsmap_zoom2.html. They’ve got three forecasts that show intensity. The GFS model predicts a very weak depression hitting Corpus Christi on Tuesday, nothing to be concerned about. The HWRF model, a newer but possibly less reliable version of GFS, shows a category 1 Hurricane Fernand going into Mexico. The GFDL model shows a tropical storm Fernand meandering into Corpus Christi on Tuesday. There is no intensity information that I can find for the LBAR model that implicates the highly populated Galveston/Matagorda area, backed up by the Houston megalopolis.
So, no, Katy need not evacuate yet — nor need anyone else. There isn’t enough to go on yet. This is not the long-track hurricane like Ike or Rita that has been more common recently along the Texas coast and that has, at the end, been a bit easier to predict. This “thing” is a little closer to what became Hurricane Alicia in 1972. It began life in a similar area but intensified rapidly as it made a fairly quick path towards the Texas coast. On the other hand, there are certainly lots of “things” out in the Gulf that have looked life 92L but have fizzled or gone places other than Texas. Catrisk will keep you posted.