Just what we don’t need: an especially active hurricane season

Evidently the risk of blue tarps on people’s houses for long periods of time as they wait to collect from an insolvent Texas Windstorm Insurance Association following a moderate or severe tropical cyclone this summer or next has not been enough to motivate the Texas legislature to do anything serious about the problem during its regular session. Here’s one more piece of evidence, the new 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast, suggesting that this failure to act leaves the Texas coast in grave danger and the rest of Texas at serious risk.  It strengthens calls for Governor Rick Perry to add windstorm reform to the agenda for a special session.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center today joined other scientists (here and here) in predicting a worse than average hurricane season. They write:

This combination of climate factors historically produces above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2013 hurricane season could see activity comparable to some of the very active seasons since 1995. Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2013:

  • 13-20 Named Storms
  • 7-11 Hurricanes
  • 3-6 Major Hurricanes
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-205%

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

Note that the expected ranges are centered well above the official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

If, by the way, we assume a 50% higher number of tropical storms this year than average, the risk of TWIA becoming insolvent if it has $1 billion (after limited success selling post-event bonds) with which to pay claims goes from roughly 7% this year to roughly 10% this year. If we assume, as the most optimistic people do, that TWIA might have access to $3.5 billion (after successful post-event bond sales and some reinsurance), the risk of insolvency goes from roughly 2% to roughly 3%. All of these numbers are too high for comfort.

The only comfort one can obtain from this forecast of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is that it could, of course, be wrong.  Hurricane predictions, particular this far in advance, are not the most reliable forecasts out there.  NOAA has taken this into account, however, by saying that there is only a 70% chance that its forecast will be right.  Still, a 70% (or, technically greater) chance that we will have a greater than average number of Atlantic hurricanes this year, when TWIA, even with the most cheery assumptions, is still underfunded, should make one’s stomach churn as if in sympathy with the future waters of the Gulf.

My thanks to Houston Chronicle blogger extraordinaire, SciGuy Eric Berger, for bringing this news to my attention.

 

 

2 thoughts on “Just what we don’t need: an especially active hurricane season

  1. Seth – The hurricane prediction is a good overview but the other factor is that Texas has been shielded by the same high pressure doom that caused our drought in the past couple of years and hurricanes have been steered away from us. We are shifting out of the prolonged drought and will not have this doom pushing cyclones away from us as much this summer. Hopefully it will bring needed rain but it also means the front door to Texas will be open to a cyclones.

    I don’t want to be the ultra pessemist but I don’t see TWIA having much money. The only real money they have is the $180 million in the CRTF. Everything else is iffy. I haven’t heard if they obtained the $500 million pre-event bond loan they had asked for? I would not count on anything other proven reserves – issued pre-event bonds and money in the bank. TDI Commissioner Kitzman said in testimony that none of the post event bonds are marketable — she should know.

  2. Pingback: Perry announces special session, but windstorm insurance not on agenda

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